Why Climate Models Systematically Undervalue Fungal Carbon Sinks
Despite their scale, mycorrhizal fungi remain structurally under-represented in mainstream climate accounting. Most global carbon-cycle models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prioritise above-ground biomass (trees and vegetation) and oceanic sinks, while treating soil carbon as comparatively inert or slow-moving. This modelling bias obscures the role of living soil systems—particularly fungi—in actively capturing, stabilising, and redistributing carbon.
Recent synthesis studies published in Nature Climate Change and Global Change Biology estimate that plants allocate 20–40% of their photosynthetically fixed carbon below ground, a substantial share of which flows directly into mycorrhizal networks. Research led by Kiers and collaborators suggests that fungi alone mediate the drawdown of approximately 13–13.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually, equivalent to roughly 30–35% of yearly fossil-fuel emissions. Yet this flux is rarely isolated or credited in national greenhouse-gas inventories.
The reasons are methodological and institutional. Fungal carbon does not respect national boundaries, is difficult to measure remotely, and is often stored as complex soil compounds rather than visible biomass. As a result, policy frameworks systematically undervalue land-management practices that protect soil ecology, even though these practices may deliver more durable climate benefits than some headline mitigation projects.
From Rainforests to a Global “Underground Atlas”
Kiers’ scientific trajectory began at the age of 19, when she secured funding to join a rainforest expedition in Panama and began asking what sustained the towering trees above ground. That curiosity led to a career spent peering into soil ecosystems, including the first time she observed an arbuscule—a tiny, tree-like fungal structure that penetrates plant cells and serves as the site of nutrient exchange.
Now a University Research Chair at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Kiers has helped build the first global maps of mycorrhizal fungi. In 2025, her team launched a worldwide Underground Atlas charting where different fungal species are found—and where they are disappearing. One of its most striking findings: many of the world’s richest underground biodiversity hotspots lie outside protected areas, leaving critical carbon stores vulnerable to land-use change.
The “Biological Marketplace” Below Our Feet
A landmark 2011 paper by Kiers, published in Science, upended assumptions about fungal behaviour. Using controlled experiments, her team showed that fungi operate as rational economic actors in what she termed a biological marketplace. Fungal networks actively redistribute nutrients from areas of abundance to scarcity and adjust their “pricing”—extracting more carbon from plants that depend on them most.
In some cases, fungi even hoard nutrients to increase demand, a strategy that mirrors human market behaviour despite the absence of a brain or central nervous system. These findings raised deeper questions about how information flows through fungal networks, with growing evidence suggesting electrical signalling may play a role.
Making the Underground Visible—and Legible to Law
More recently, Kiers and her collaborators published two Nature papers that transformed how these networks are studied. One introduced a robotic imaging system capable of observing fungal growth and nutrient flows in real time; the other provided the most comprehensive global distribution analysis of mycorrhizal fungi to date.
Why Conservation Law Has No Place for Fungi
Despite their ecological importance, fungi occupy a legal blind spot. Most conservation frameworks—national wildlife laws, biodiversity strategies, and even international agreements such as the Convention on Biological Diversity—are structured around species and habitats that are visible and taxonomically well-described. Fungi, by contrast, are poorly catalogued: scientists estimate that only 6–10% of fungal species have been formally identified.
As a result, environmental impact assessments can approve land-use change even when it destroys underground fungal networks that support entire ecosystems. A forest may be legally “protected” based on tree cover while its soil is compacted, fertilised, or chemically treated in ways that collapse mycorrhizal systems and release stored carbon.
This institutional vacuum is precisely what the Society for the Protection of Underground Networks (SPUN), co-founded by Kiers, seeks to address. By mapping fungal biodiversity and training scientists in environmental law, SPUN aims to insert fungi into conservation decision-making—arguing that protecting ecosystems without protecting their underground networks is conceptually incomplete and scientifically unsound.
Coinciding with the Tyler Prize—accompanied by a $250,000 award—SPUN has launched an “Underground Advocates” programme to train scientists in legal and regulatory tools to safeguard fungal ecosystems.
Carbon Permanence: Why Fungal Storage Is Different from Tree-Based Offsets
Not all carbon sinks are equal. Much of today’s climate-finance architecture relies on tree-based offsets, which store carbon above ground and are vulnerable to reversal through fire, disease, logging, or political change. In contrast, carbon stabilised through mycorrhizal fungi is often incorporated into deep soil organic matter, where it can persist for decades or centuries.
Soil-science research published in Nature and Science indicates that fungal-derived compounds—such as glomalin and other complex polymers—are more resistant to microbial breakdown than plant litter alone. This makes fungal-mediated sequestration a high-permanence carbon sink, particularly valuable in a warming world where surface ecosystems face increasing disturbance.
From a policy perspective, this distinction matters. If carbon markets and offset standards fail to differentiate between transient and durable storage, they risk misallocating capital toward projects that look impressive on paper but deliver fragile climate benefits. Incorporating fungal systems into carbon accounting could redirect investment toward land-use practices that lock carbon underground, rather than merely postponing its release.
Why This Matters
The recognition of Toby Kiers’ work marks a broader shift in environmental thinking: from protecting what is visible on the surface to accounting for the systems that make surface life possible at all. Fungi enabled early plants to colonise land hundreds of millions of years ago, shaping soils, stabilising climates, and supporting the ecosystems humans now depend on.
As climate policy increasingly focuses on carbon sequestration, land use, and biodiversity loss, Kiers’ research underscores a critical reality: protecting forests and farms without protecting the fungal networks beneath them means ignoring one of Earth’s most powerful climate allies.